Finally, US$ breakout early Dec09

So sorry, I just came back from my Japan Trip and busy with my work.

2010 will be a good year if you have been watching the charts.

US$ breakout early Dec09. See US$ chart (left side of my blog).
http://www.investmentu.com/
Why the Dollar will Soar in 2010 by Alexander Green.

Now, I am super confuse with gold and oil will still go up when US$ go up????
There are a few short ETF I am watching looks interesting.
EEV, FXP, SMN, SRS, UUP
Depend on your views, puts or call options will be moving for these ETFs.
So be careful, wrong direction will cost you $$$.

KBE Sell off

Last posting on 10 Oct, KBE is hitting resistance.
And after 2 weeks, KBE breaking down from $24 to 21.



Anymore downside? Will there be a bounce before major sell off again?

Market Correction

ETF UUP is up up and away ==> DXY also bullish.




What is up in this UUP chart? (7 days ago)
Volume up (green bar) = Bullish
MA20/EMA25 Breakout = Bullish
Accumulation strongly moving up for about 7 days
ADX crossing over soon (+DI is moving up = Bullish)
CCI crossover -100 and moving above 0
MACD bullish crossover
MFI moving above 50%
OBV having strong reversal bounce
Stochastic crossover last week.

Watch out the following :
DUG, EEV, FXP, QID, SMN, SRS, VIX
AKS, DIG, IYR, KBE, LFT

Will market stop last week selling and head higher?
Always look at the volume and price.

US$ DXY & KBE Charts

Is the US$ really going to go all the way down?


There is an indicator ADX or DMI, I am still learning but looks like US$ might be changing direction soon. The blue line DMI + is trending up for a month and it is touching the DMI -, if there is a cross over, then it is bullish for DXY which is the US$.
If that happened, materials & commodities (gold & oil) will fall.
But if DXY unable to breakup (> $76.60, $77.35), then other wise will happen.
Please look at ADX, MACD, RSI & Stochastic indicators.
Checkup Kenny's Blog for detail on DXY/US$ chart movement.

Do watch the KBE too? It is going to hit the long term resistance line?
If it unable to breakup, then it will going down (I guess).

ADX +DI is trending down and if -DI tread upwards and make a crossover, KBE is heading down.

Is this going to be major downturn?

Well, I do not know but many of the indexes, ETF & stocks have breakout signal & Evening Black Star on weekly chart last week.







Will they stop at the pink resistance line? I suspect they will touches the pink resistance line.
There are other indicators showing the bearish signal too. Commodity Channel Index crossed the 100 level. I will update the weekly chart next week.

In trading, nothing works 100% & so is TA.

If you know of some trading methods that works 100%, please let me know.
There are bounces to be false breakout at times.
And there are times, you will be stop out at stop limit and the charts bounces back nicely.

So, why are we still learning TA for?
There are many situations that TA works and we are going to learn from the past.
Let’s look at some index basic weekly chart during Mar 2009 and see how a bottom looks like.

What about the Shanghai Index? When was the bottom? Early Nov 2008

There are many other index charts which bottom in March 09. All having the same pattern, 1st there will be a breakout of resistance line with big white candle. Following it will move higher and breakout above the MA20 line of the Bollinger Band.

If you find some charts which have such bottom pattern, please do share with me.

Bollinger Band Squeeze for most indexes

Bollinger Band Squessze :

DJI Target 10350 (50%)
S&P500 Target 1111 (50%)
NASDAQ Target 2060 (50%)
CAC 40 Target 3878 (38.2%)
DAX Target 5858 (50%)
FTSE 100 Target 5100 (50%)
Hang Seng Target 21270 (50%) 23780 (61.8%)
Straits Times Target 2675 (50%) 2970 (61.8%)

Bollinger Band Expansion :
Shanghai Target 3358 (38.2) 3900 (50%)